Imagine you and a friend are sitting in a coffee shop, laptops open, scribbling ideas on napkins like you’re the next Silicon Valley duo plotting the next big startup idea. You’re buzzing with excitement.
Maybe it’s an app that delivers tacos by drone, or a subscription box for socks that never lose their match. The possibilities feel endless!
But then pesky reality comes creeping in…
You pause and ask two critical questions:
- Do we actually think we can pull this off?
- Do we care enough about the outcome to make it worth the risk?
That’s the heart of Expectancy-Value Theory in psychology. It’s the idea that our motivation to act depends on two things: whether we believe we can succeed, and how much we value the result.
No confidence, no motivation. No value, no motivation.
If you don’t think you can succeed, you won’t even try. If you don’t care about the outcome, you won’t bother.
But when belief and value line up? That’s when people dive in, hustle hard, and maybe… just maybe… change the world (or at least sell a whole lot of socks).
Meet the Theory and Its Creator
Expectancy-Value Theory first took shape in the 1950s with psychologist John Atkinson, who wanted to understand why some people chase ambitious goals while others prefer to avoid them.
Later, in the 1980s and 1990s, Jacquelynne Eccles expanded the theory, especially in the context of education, showing how students’ expectations and values shape their choices in school and beyond.
Atkinson and Eccles weren’t just asking, “Why do people try?” They were asking, “Why do people try this and not that?” Why does one student sign up for advanced math while another avoids it like the plague? Why does one person launch a business while another lets the idea die in their notebook?
Their answer: motivation is a calculation. You weigh your chances of success (expectancy) against how much the outcome matters (value). If both are high, you’re motivated. If either is low, your effort fizzles.
Think of it like entrepreneurship. Nobody starts a business just because they’re bored. They start because they believe they can make it work and because the payoff feels worth the sleepless nights, ramen dinners, and awkward conversations with investors.
The Big Idea
The big idea of Expectancy-Value Theory is that motivation = expectancy × value.
- Expectancy is your belief that you can succeed. It’s the confidence that your skills, resources, and effort will actually pay off.
- Value is how much the outcome matters to you. It’s the reason you care enough to even try.
If either expectancy or value is zero, motivation collapses. It’s like multiplying by zero: no matter how high the other number is, the product is still going to be nothing.
Picture yourself with that taco-drone startup idea we talked about.
If you’re convinced you could build the tech but secretly don’t care about tacos (gasp!), you won’t launch. If you love tacos more than life itself but don’t believe you can code your way out of a paper bag, you won’t launch either.
But if you believe in your skills and you value the mission of taco delivery by air? Suddenly you’re sketching logos, pitching investors, and Googling “FAA drone regulations.”
The Core Components of This Theory
Expectancy-Value Theory breaks motivation into a few key components:
- Expectancy for Success. This is your belief about whether you can actually succeed at the task. It’s not blind optimism, but rather it’s shaped by past experiences, your sense of competence, and the resources you have. If you’ve failed three businesses already, your expectancy might be low. If you’ve built small wins along the way, it’s higher.
- Task Value. This is how much the outcome matters to you, and Eccles broke it down into four flavors:
- Attainment Value: “This matters to who I am.” (e.g., proving you’re capable of running your own business, or showing your family you’re not just a dreamer.)
- Intrinsic Value: “This is fun or interesting.” (e.g., you love the thrill of designing products and building something from scratch.)
- Utility Value: “This will be useful later.” (e.g., even if the business flops, you’ll gain experience, skills, and maybe a killer LinkedIn story.)
- Cost: The flip side and what you lose by trying. So, things like time, stress, money, sleep, and Netflix binges. High costs can tank motivation even if expectancy and value are high.
Together, these pieces form a motivational equation.
You’ll only pour effort into a task if you believe you can succeed and if you believe the outcome is worth the price tag.
Breaking It Down
Let’s break this into a simple thought process.
Step one: Can I do this? This is your expectancy check. If you think the answer is “no,” motivation dies right there. Why pour energy into something doomed to fail?
Step two: Do I care? This is your value check. Even if you can do something, if the outcome doesn’t matter, you won’t bother. Why build a taco-drone empire if you don’t even like tacos?
Step three: Is the cost worth it? Even with high expectancy and high value, motivation can collapse if the costs feel unbearable. If starting the business means losing all your savings and every weekend for the next two years, you might decide the price is too steep.
Expectancy-Value Theory is basically your brain running a cost-benefit analysis every time you face a choice. Sometimes it’s conscious (“Should I quit my job to start this business?”). Sometimes it’s subconscious (“Should I get off the couch to do laundry?”).
Either way, the calculation is the same.
A Day in the Life
To help illustrate what Expectancy-Value Theory looks like in real life, let’s meet Carla.
Carla’s been toying with the idea of starting a side hustle selling custom planners. She loves designing them, and her friends keep saying she should open an Etsy shop.
At first, Carla hesitates. She doubts her ability to manage the tech side of things, like setting up a shop, handling shipping, and marketing on social media. Her expectancy is low, so her motivation stalls.
Then she takes a weekend workshop on small business basics, learns how to set up an online store, and even gets some helpful tips on social media marketing. Suddenly, she feels more confident and her expectancy rises. She thinks, “Okay, I can actually do this!”
Next, she weighs the value. She loves the creative process (intrinsic value), wants to prove to herself that she can be an entrepreneur (attainment value), and figures the extra income could help pay off those pesky student loans (utility value). The only downside? It’ll eat into her Netflix marathon time (cost).
When Carla balances it all, the expectancy is high, the value is high, and the cost feels manageable. Motivation kicks in. She opens her Etsy shop, lists her first batch of planners, and does a little happy dance when the first order comes in.
Carla’s decision wasn’t random. It was a textbook case of Expectancy-Value Theory: belief in her ability plus value in the outcome equaled motivation to act.
Why It Matters
Expectancy-Value Theory matters because it explains why motivation sometimes feels like rocket fuel and other times feels like an empty tank. It’s not just about “believing in yourself” or “wanting it badly enough.” It’s about the combination of both.
This theory has been applied everywhere:
- In schools, to understand why some students engage and others check out. Teachers can boost expectancy by building skills and confidence, and boost value by connecting lessons to students’ lives.
- In workplaces, to design incentives that actually work. A bonus only motivates if employees believe they can achieve it and if the reward feels meaningful.
- In personal goals, to decode why some dreams gather dust while others take off. If you’re stuck, it’s usually because either expectancy or value is missing.
Next time you’re procrastinating, ask yourself:
- Do I actually believe I can succeed at this?
- Do I actually care about the outcome?
If the answer to either is “no,” it’s no wonder you’re unmotivated! The trick is to either boost your expectancy (build skills, get support, lower the difficulty) or boost your value (connect the task to your goals, make it more interesting, reduce the costs).
Critiques and Limitations
Like any theory, Expectancy-Value has its blind spots.
For one, people aren’t always rational calculators. In fact, that’s not as common as we might like to think!
Sometimes we chase goals that make no sense (“I’m going to start a goat yoga empire!”) or avoid goals that we’re perfectly capable of achieving. Emotions, fear, and social pressure can override the neat expectancy-value equation and throw the whole calculation way off.
It also struggles with something seriously important for many big goals: long-term motivation.
Starting a business might feel exciting at first, but what about six months in, when the novelty has worn off and the costs are piling up? Expectancy-Value Theory explains the spark, but not always the stamina necessary to stay in the game.
Still, it’s one of the most practical and flexible theories of motivation. Even beyond examining why we act, it gives us a handy framework to troubleshoot our own motivation for thsoe times when we’re just stuck!
Tomato Takeaway
Expectancy-Value Theory reminds us that motivation is like launching a startup. You need two things: belief in your ability to succeed and a reason to care about the outcome.
Take away either, and the business never leaves the planning stage at the coffee shop. Put them together, and you’ve got the fuel to move forward.
So as we wrap up with today’s Tomato Takeaway, I’ve got a challenge for you:
Think about a goal you’ve been putting off. Is it stalled because you don’t believe you can succeed, or because you don’t actually care about the outcome?
Share your answer in the comments below. Let’s compare notes on where our “startups” are stuck and how we can get them off the ground!
Fueled by coffee and curiosity, Jeff is a veteran blogger with an MBA and a lifelong passion for psychology. Currently finishing an MS in Industrial-Organizational Psychology (and eyeing that PhD), he’s on a mission to make science-backed psychology fun, clear, and accessible for everyone. When he’s not busting myths or brewing up new articles, you’ll probably find him at the D&D table or hunting for his next great cup of coffee.